• Tahir Subhani
• Leave a Comment on Crude Oil Price March 2026: Last 20 Days – $75 to $119

The last 20 days have witnessed one of the most dramatic periods in global oil market history. What began as relatively stable trading in mid-February transformed into a full-blown energy crisis following the US-Israel attack on Iran on February 28, 2026, and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz through which one-fifth of the world’s oil supply normally passes.

The 20-Day Timeline – From Stability to Crisis

Pre-Crisis Stability (Feb 21-27)

Before the conflict erupted, oil markets were relatively calm. On March 3, just days after the initial strikes, Brent crude was already showing the impact, climbing 7.8% to $83.28 per barrel, while WTI rose 4.7% to $74.48 .

The Surge Begins (Feb 28 – March 8)

Following the US-Israel attack on Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, prices began their dramatic ascent. Tanker traffic through the strait was severely disrupted, with exports of crude and refined products falling to less than 10% of pre-conflict levels .

The Peak (March 9)

On Monday, March 9, Brent crude briefly climbed to $119.50 per barrel—its highest level since mid-2022—before easing back .

Coordinated Response (March 11-13)

The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced its member countries had unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves, the largest such coordinated release in IEA history . The United States followed with a commitment to release 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, beginning the week of March 16 .

Despite these efforts, prices remained volatile. On March 12, Brent jumped 9.3% to $100.50 after fresh attacks on oil tankers near Iraq heightened supply fears .

Daily Crude Oil Prices – Last 20 Days

Current Prices (March 13, 2026 – Evening Update)

As of Friday evening, March 13, 2026

Day’s Range:

• Brent: $97 – $101.07

• WTI: $92.14 – $97.83

Why Prices Are Falling Despite War

Several factors have helped cool prices from the $119.50 peak:

1. Historic Strategic Reserve Releases

• IEA: Coordinated release of 400 million barrels from member countries’ emergency reserves – the largest in history 

• United States: 172 million barrels from Strategic Petroleum Reserve, starting next week, taking approximately 120 days to deliver 

• Japan: Release beginning as early as March 16 

• Germany: 19.51 million barrels from strategic reserves 

• France: 14.5 million barrels 

• United Kingdom: 13.5 million barrels 

• Netherlands: 5.36 million barrels (~20% of total stockpile) 

• Other European nations: Austria, Portugal, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania also contributing 

2. Limited Strait Traffic

Iran is allowing minimal traffic through the Strait, mainly for China, maintaining some flow despite the conflict.

3. Market Expectations

Traders are pricing in the likelihood that strategic releases will cushion the worst supply disruptions.

Expert Forecasts and Analysis

Goldman Sachs Projections 

PIDE Warning for Pakistan

The Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) warned that in a worst-case scenario—such as a three-month disruption in the Strait of Hormuz—global oil prices could surge to between $120 and $150 per barrel, which would sharply increase Pakistan’s monthly petroleum import bill and consumer inflation .

Iran’s Warning

Iran’s new Supreme Leader stated that keeping the Strait closed should remain a “tool to pressure the enemy,” warning that oil could hit $200 per barrel .

Analyst View on Pakistan

Shankar Talreja, analyst at Topline Securities, noted that since Pakistan imports most of its oil from Gulf countries, sustained crude price spikes could rapidly expand the import bill and intensify inflation in an economy still dependent on IMF financing .

Impact on Pakistan – What This Means for You

1. Direct Price Transmission

Pakistan imports most of its fuel, and global crude movements directly impact local prices. The Rs55 per litre hike on March 7 was a direct result of crude crossing $100.

2. Senate Committee Briefing – Key Takeaways

On March 12, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb and Petroleum Minister Ali Pervaiz Malik briefed the Senate Standing Committee on Finance 

3. Weekly Reviews Now in Effect

The government has shifted to weekly price reviews, meaning Pakistani consumers will feel global volatility faster—both up and down.

4. Future Outlook for Pakistani Consumers

5. Government Measures

• Saudi Yanbu alternative route secured

• 28 days of strategic reserves available (government estimate)

• 19-member committee monitoring daily

• Austerity and energy conservation measures implemented to create fiscal space 

Important Note For Pakistani Consumers

What You Need to Know Right Now:

1. Global crude has dropped below $100 – but local prices may not fall immediately due to lag effects and government revenue needs. The next review is due March 15.

2. The Strait remains the wildcard – Iran’s new Supreme Leader stated on March 12 that the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed as a “tool to pressure the enemy” . Any further escalation could send prices back toward $120.

3. Weekly reviews mean faster changes – check Petrol Price in Pakistan every Friday for updates.

4. Don’t panic buy – Petroleum Minister assured the Senate that the price hike was necessary to ensure continued imports and prevent shortages .

5. Long-term solution – PIDE’s report emphasizes that Pakistan must expand strategic reserves, diversify import routes, and accelerate investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency .

Quick Overview